our approach to the markets

we are here to lend an ear to your approach as well

GrainTracker Marketing

GrainTracker Marketing Consultants take a very systematic approach to the markets, taking into account current fundamentals, time of the year, trend following technical analysis and finally experience.

We acknowledge we do not know what the markets are going to do, so the cornerstone of our marketing is price averaging.  To help keep some of the emotion out of market decisions, we use the 14-day stochastics to tell us when we need to be paying attention to the markets.  Almost as important, they tell us when we shouldn’t be selling.  Once in an "action alert", how much and how quickly to sell depends on: risk tolerance, time of the year, price, technical indicators and the current fundamental outlook.

Unlike most advisors, we feel we need to be accountable and upfront with the results of our approach.  We created “Beat The Marketer” as a way for you to see exactly where we are at on our sales.

A Beat The Marketer goal is to forward sell 50% of the crop.  We feel this is a middle of the road goal and you can easily adjust your numbers to follow along.   We have customers who sell very little ahead to those that sell up to their insurance level.

What is GrainTracker Marketing's Philosophy? We focus on making good business decisions with the best information we have at that time.  We make a series of sales over a period of time, with an emphasis on historical tendencies.  Historically, seasonal highs come in the first half of the year and prices tend to drop going into harvest IF crops are unaffected by the weather.  We look for profitable results year after year, not getting a lucky one year.
What is an "action alert"? We define an "action alert" as when 14-day stochastics reach the “overbought” area of the chart.
What is the stochastics? It is a technical indicator that measures the markets momentum over a period of time (we use the 14-day period).
Why do you use a technical indicator? It is way to keep some of the emotion out of our marketing decisions.  When we get an "action alert" we know we need to think about rewarding the market. If you feel it is appropriate then the decision comes as to how to reward the market.
Why do you use the Stochastics in particular? No one indicator performs best under all circumstances.  The stochastics work well when the markets stay in a trading range and work well under most market conditions.  They don’t work so well in weather markets (nothing does).
Why do you make multiple sales? We believe in price averaging.
Why do you sell the highs? The highs are only known looking into the past.  Since our marketing takes place over a period of 1½ years (or more), and weather has such an impact on prices, it is impossible to predict when the high might be occurring.
Do long range weather forecasts play a role in your marketing? No, we are aware of the forecast but have to assume “normal” weather and thus a normal sized crop.  Potential weather concerns can be taken into account with the use of options.
How do the Fundamentals play into your marketing? The fundamentals (the USDA Balance Sheets) set the overall tone to your marketing.  If supplies are expected to increase, then you sell more aggressively. If supplies are tightening, then sales are less aggressive.  It is important to understand the fundamentals can change monthly and both US and World Balance sheets need to be considered.
We are new to your service, how do I know where you are with your marketing? To hold us accountable and to allow you to follow where we are at, we have created "Beat The Marketer" as a way for you to follow along in real time. We feel this makes us unique.
Does "Beat the Marketer" get into the top third of the market? We look for consistency year after year. Weather ultimately dictates prices. Measuring one-year only means your marketing style matched that year's weather influence.
RJ O'Brien Account Link for Personal Accounts only. Call us for the Corporate Account Form. https://www.rjobrien.com/esign/index.php?id=36102