beat the marketer

where bill shares his marketing plan

GrainTracker Marketing

Decisions, decisions, decisions! While there are some that have always relied on 'a hunch' or 'a spur of the moment feeling" most would like to have some other perspectives take part in the decision making. The logic behind our approach combines the use of a non-emotional indicator, historical seasonal tendencies, insight to what is currently driving the market and the underlying fundamentals to decide when and how much to sell.

Beat the Marketer is where you can compare your sales to mine. Until all sales are made it is hard to know if you are ahead or behind but at least this gives you some insight as to where I am at the time. There will be no fancy end of the year averaging or mystery of where the advisor is on sales. Here it is, front and center for you to see in real time:

Assumptions:

  1. I want to forward sell 50% of each of my crops before harvest.
  2. Crop Insurance Coverage is at 85%.
  3. On-farm storage for 100% of APH; will roll all December Sales to July.
 

2020 Crop Year

Commodity Date % Sold Price Month Total % Sold Average Price

Corn

7/9/20
7/10/20
8/28/20
9/2/20
9/11/20
9/16/20
9/18/20

5
5
5
5
5
5
5

3.55
3.60
3.60
3.55
3.65
3.70
3.78

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec

    35%

      $3.63

Soybeans

1/2/20
1/8/20
8/19/20
8/28/20
9/2/20
9/8/20
9/11/20
9/16/20
9/18/20

5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5

9.75
9.75
9.18
9.50
9.60
9.79
9.90
10.10
10.40

Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov

    45%      $9.77
 

2019 Crop Year

Commodity Date % Sold Price Month Total % Sold Average Price

Corn

5/9/19
5/15/19 
5/20/19
5/29/19
6/18/19 
6/25/19 
12/20/19
12/26/19
1/2/20
5/11/20
5/28/19
6/5/20
6/5/20
6/8/20
6/16/20
6/25/20
6/29/20
7/1/20
7/9/20
7/17/20

5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5

4.05
4.17
4.05
4.49
4.68
4.60
3.99
4.00
4.03
3.20
3.29
3.30
3.31
3.34
3.34
3.20
3.24
3.48
3.50
3.30

July
July
Dec
Dec
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
Sept
Sept

    100%

      $3.73

Soybeans

12/3/18
 2/7/19
 5/9/19
 6/18/19
6/25/19
12/18/19
12/20/19
12/26/19
12/30/19
1/2/20
1/8/20
3/27/20
3/30/20
3/31/20
6/5/20
6/17/20
7/17/20
7/24/20
8/19/20
8/28/20

5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5

9.50
9.60
8.85
9.40
9.35
9.40
9.28
9.45
9.55
9.60
9.75
8.85
8.80
8.80
8.70
8.70
8.99
9.05
9.15
9.50

Nov
Nov
July
Nov
Nov
March
Jan
March
March
March
July
May
May
May
July
July
Aug
Aug
Sept
Sept

    100%      $9.21
 
 

  

 
 

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